Retirement: How does the U.S. Compare to the World?
EVERYONE LIKES TO COMPARE
When I discuss budgeting with clients, I inevitably get the question of how much others spend on various line items, like eating out, travel, or groceries. When it comes to net worth or income, everyone is curious to know what it takes to be in the top 50%, 20%, 10% and of course 1%.
This month I ran across an interesting article in the Visual Capitalist on retiring comfortably by country.1 While it is an interesting exercise to see how much it would take to retire in various countries around the world, I haven’t found a lot of people who want to be expats and miss out on regular interaction with their children and grandchildren. Other significant factors are the local language, healthcare, and of course being able to adjust to many of the conveniences in the United States that aren’t readily available in other countries.
The following estimates reflect a retirement of approximately 15 years, based on the average U.S. retirement age and life expectancy. They exclude taxes and healthcare costs. Here are the top 15 most expensive:
Rank Country Cost to Retire
Singapore $1.1M
Iceland $893K
Switzerland $859K
Luxembourg $794K
United States $738K
Ireland $702K
UAE $684K
Netherlands $663K
Israel $642K
United Kingdom $627K
Denmark $625K
Norway $623K
Australia $620K
Qatar $606K
Canada $598K
Dropping down the list to the bottom four countries you can retire with less than $200,000 are probably places you wouldn’t choose: Egypt, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. A few popular locations for Americans to retire include Costa Rica at $556K, Panama $520K, Portugal $476K, and Greece $406K.
I was surprised that the United States was in the top 5, but that is the average of all fifty states. So, I wanted to dig deeper, intuitively thinking it would be way more expensive to retire in Hawaii than it would be in West Virginia. My findings were correct, as the most expensive places to retire in the United States were: Hawaii, Massachusetts, California, New York, and New Hampshire, while the following all cost less than half the amount to retire in: Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee.3 No political commentary here, but the most expensive are all Blue States, and the least expensive are all Red States.
WHAT’S AHEAD IN THE MARKETS?
Some of the most interesting market activity last month was not where most investors focus their attention. Most people focus on stocks, but bonds were where potential issues are brewing. While stocks were climbing nicely, there was turbulence in the bond market, where continually increasing issuance from the U.S. government is suddenly having to compete with a substantial increase from the corporate debt market. Sometimes markets really are as simple as supply vs. demand, and with so much new bond supply, bond prices have been falling (which means interest rates have been rising).
This bond dynamic hasn't just been limited to the U.S. markets. Across the globe, sovereign debt yields are reaching levels either never seen before (as in the case of Japan's 30-year yield), or at least not seen in decades. This is making some investors and government officials nervous.
You may have missed it, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened in markets not just once, but twice. The first was on July 31, as the U.S. intervened to help stabilize the Japanese currency, the Yen. The consensus view is that as the Yen weakened further against the U.S. Dollar and other currencies, there was fear that Japan would sell part of its huge U.S. Treasury Bond holdings to get dollars, which they could use to stabilize their currency. The U.S. didn't want even more Treasury Bond supply flooding the market, which would put even more upward pressure on interest rates, so we intervened directly to help stabilize the Yen.
The second intervention came just three weeks later on Aug. 19, when Treasury Secretary Bessent announced out of the blue that he was doubling the amount of the previously scheduled buyback program of long-term Treasury Bonds.
Neither case involved a particularly extensive amount of money, nor did either have a dramatic effect on the markets they were focused on. However, taken together, they revealed a sign of panic regarding trying to constrain long-term interest rates. These actions also came across as treating the symptoms (rising interest rates, falling currency valuations), while completely ignoring the underlying problem, which is runaway government spending that has continued long after the COVID crisis.
The second intervention drew a strong public rebuke in a Wall Street Journal editorial written by Stan Druckenmiller, arguably the most influential investor now that Warren Buffett has retired. He made the "quit treating the symptoms" argument, while pointing out that such interventions have long been part of the problem, as they create artificial relief that keeps lawmakers from addressing the issue that runaway spending needs to be reined in.
The end result of all this is that a U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.77% on Sept. 1. It briefly hit this level in January 2025.Prior to that, its peak was near 5.0% in October 2023, which came with a nasty slide in stocks. Otherwise, we haven’t seen this important benchmark rate higher dating all the way back to pre-Global Financial Crisis times in the mid-2000s. None of this means anything dire is inevitable or imminent, but it does explain why interest rates are the most likely future problem for the stock market.
The war with Iran has continued on much longer than most had envisioned. For now, it seems to be a test of wills, with the United States using both targeted bombing, blockades, and economic sanctions, to try and end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz for the world. A definitive ending should see positive results in the equity markets.
TACTICAL ASSET ROTATION STRATEGY (TARS) RESULTS
THE CORE STRATEGY
The Core ETF Strategy is comprised of 3 of the following 6 asset classes: U.S. Stocks, International Stocks, Real Estate Stocks, Gold, US Bonds and Cash (1-3 mo Treasuries). They are evaluated on a relative-strength basis and re-ranked 1 through 6 each month. Clients are in the top 3. Typically, the CORE makes up 30% of a client portfolio. The Core TARS portfolio is designed to share in some of the bull market’s gains, while minimizing (or even preventing) losses during bear markets. “Win by not losing.”
Bonds and stocks are clearly affected by surging interest rates, as are gold and real estate, but not necessarily always in the way one might think. Real Estate is pretty straightforward, as higher rates are generally just bad for this asset class. This showed up during August as our Real Estate holding (USRT) fell -3.33%.
Gold's relationship with interest rates is more complicated. On the one hand, higher rates tend to be bad for gold, which competes with higher-yielding assets for investor attention. On the other hand, gold is the escape valve when investors fear the government might take steps to devalue the currency, whether by allowing higher inflation or by debasing the currency in other ways. The Treasury's actions to intervene in both the currency and interest rate markets last month temporarily lit a fire under the gold price, which soared on these fears.
Until last Friday (8/28), it appeared we would be selling Real Estate and buying Gold back this month, however, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh managed to stem the tide with his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, causing gold to drop substantially in the few days since. This was enough to keep gold's strong August gain from reaching the level we needed to make that change.
In the first 2 months of this year, the Core Strategy was continuing its meteoric rise from 2025. As you recall, the Core Strategy was up 27% last year, while the S&P 500 index was up 17%. At the end of February, the Core Strategy was up 10.50%, while the S&P 500 Index was flat, at -0.04%. With the war starting in March, all assets dropped in value and then in April and May surged back. Since the beginning of June, the Dow has been bouncing up and down, ranging from 51,000 to 54,000.
As we closed out August, the Core ETF Strategy was up 6.40%, while the 60/40 stock/bond blend we compare it to was up 10.07%. So, at this point we are lagging our benchmark. There are four months left in the year. While I always say, “Hope is not a strategy,” there is the opportunity if things break right with the war and interest rates (as mentioned above) that we end up with a double-digit return for the year.
Here was the performance of the Core ETFs for August(2)
US Stocks (SPY) + 2.68%
Russell 1000 Value (VONV)** + 2.06%
International (EFA) + 1.77%
Real Estate (USRT) - 3.33%
*Conservative, Moderate Conservative & Moderate allocations hold 50% SPY and 50% VONV.
**Moderate Aggressive & Aggressive allocations hold 0% SPY and 100% VONV.
There are no changes for September.
SECTOR ETFS
The TARS Sectors that are chosen based upon the same momentum strategy as the Core ETFs. I evaluate 85 Sectors and we make changes if they fall out of the top quartile.
Biotech had a tough July, but rebounded nicely in August with a 10.54% return and solidly #1 on the list of 90 sectors we track.
Here is the performance of the Sector ETFs for August(2)
Biotechnology (XBI) + 10.54%
*Moderate and Moderate Aggressive allocations
There are no changes for September.
WORLD ETFS
I evaluate 64 country and world ETFs. Aggressive portfolios hold a 7% allocation to 2 country ETFs and Moderate Aggressive have a 2.5% allocation each.
World funds were a bright spot in August. Emerging Market ex-China (EMXC) was up 6.64% for the month and Austria (EWO) was up 3.67%. Both outperformed the major U.S. Indexes and the EAFE International Index that was up 1.8% for the month.
Here is the performance of the World ETFs for August(2)
Austria (EWO) + 3.67%
Emerging Market ex-China (EMXC) + 6.64%
There are no changes for September.
OTHER FUNDS
VYM continues to be a consistent performer and is doing exceptionally well this year, up +10.03% YTD. Paradigm Select pretty much mimicked the returns of the S&P 500 this month.
Here is the performance of these funds for August(2)
Vanguard High Dividend Yield Stock Fund (VYM)* + 1.18%
Paradigm Select Fund (PFSLX)** + 2.59%
*Conservative, Moderate Conservative, Moderate & Moderate Aggressive allocations hold VYM.
** Moderate Aggressive & Aggressive allocations hold PFSLX.
There are no changes for September.
FIXED INCOME ETFS
PAAA (PGIM’s AAA Ultra Short Bond Fund) makes 20% of Conservative allocations, 10% of Moderate Conservative and Moderate allocation, and 5% of Moderate Aggressive allocations. It has a current yield of 5.33%. FLOT floating rate has a 10% weighting in Conservative allocation. The PIMCO Income Fund (PIMIX) makes up 10% of all but the Aggressive Growth allocations. For Moderate Conservative and Moderate allocations, FLOT has been swapped out for the Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund (GIOIX). For those in non-retirement accounts where we are seeking to limit taxable income, I have substituted the Short-term Nat’l Muni(SUB), North Square Tax-Advantaged Professional Income (QTPI), and PGIM Ultra Short Muni (PUSH).
Fixed income was a bright spot for August with every fund positive for the month.
Here is the performance of the fixed income funds in August(2)
PGIM AAA Ultra Short Bond (PAAA) + 0.44%
PGIM Short Term Muni (PUSH) + 0.38%
Short-term Nat’l Muni (SUB) + 0.38%
Invesco Floating Rate (FLOT) + 0.35%
Guggenheim Macro Opportunities (GIOIX) + 0.51%
PIMCO Income (PIMIX) + 0.45%
North Square Tax-Advantage Income (QTPI) - 0.36%
There are no changes for September.
ALTERNATIVE HOLDINGS
The JP Morgan Equity Premium fund (JEPI), writes covered calls on S&P 500 holdings for additional premium returns yields 7.97%. Real Asset Allocation (RAA) is a diversified asset allocation fund that utilizes the same relative strength strategy as our Core Strategy with the inclusion of not just stocks, bonds, and gold, but commodities, metal miners, managed futures, Bitcoin, TIPS, Emerging Market Bonds, and more. RAA is currently 10-20% of every risk strategy. It has been a solid holding up 11.29% YTD.
It’s unfortunate the war briefly distorted the momentum signal of commodities, as they’ve been a long-term theme and we’d already owned them a year when the sell signal arrived. But as noted earlier, the best thing to do with a mistake is correct it quickly.
Commodities have been a great diversifier and performer for upgrading since being added as an option in 2021. Back then, we were projecting the possibility of an inflationary environment ahead. Today, there’s little debate that that is what has unfolded. Commodities have been a great counterweight to the rest of the Aggressive Growth portfolios at times when inflation and rising interest rates have taken a toll on the stock market. Add in the continued uncertainty around the war and the Strait of Hormuz, and their renewed buy signal makes a lot of sense.
With that in mind, we are making a quick change back into SDCI from Oberweis Micro-Cap (OBMCX).
Here is the performance of the alternative funds in August(2)
Real Asset Allocation (RAA)* + 3.58%
JP Morgan Equity Premium (JEPI)** + 0.76%
Oberweis Micro-Cap (OBMCX)*** - 1.98%
*All portfolio allocations hold RAA
**All portfolio allocations except for Aggressive hold JEPI
***Aggressive Growth allocations hold OBMCX
There is one change, sell Oberweis Micro-Cap (OBMCX) and buy Commodities (SDCI).
REFERENCES
1. Visual Capitalist, Mapped: The Cost to Retire Comfortably Around the World, by Dorothy Neufeld, Aug. 14, 2026
2. Morningstar August 31, 2026 Monthly Returns.
3. GoBankingRates.com, The Minimum Savings you Need to Retire in Every State, by Rudri Patel, Jan. 13, 2026.
DISCLOSURES
The analysis and commentary in this Market Commentary is general in nature and does not take your personal circumstances into consideration. It is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial advice and investors should obtain legal, accounting and tax advice from a qualified tax professional, accountant or attorney.
The information provided in this Market Commentary, including any strategies, methodologies, and opinions, is expressed as of the date hereof and is subject to change. EverSource Wealth Advisors, LLC assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials.
This Market Commentary relies upon historical data, and much of the information presented is not intended to be performance reporting or representation, whether hypothetical or actual. Reports on the performance of various strategies are gross, not net, and do not take into account our fee or various third-party charges such as trading charges. Individual Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) performance in the commentary are monthly returns of all ETFs utilized across client accounts in various asset allocation percentages based upon risk tolerance. They are gross returns and not net of advisory fees. Each client’s returns will vary based upon the percentage of each ETF held, in addition to other variables, such as: allocations to money market funds, additional individual stocks or mutual funds held, and date of entry into each holding.
Actual results will vary from the analysis. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding future performance or the accuracy of the information herein.
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